António Valentim

António Valentim

Assistant Professor in European Politics and Policy, LSE

Research

Publications


1. Extreme Weather Events Do Not Increase Political Parties’ Environmental Attention with Tim Wappenhans, Lukas Stoetzer and Heike Klüver.
Nature Climate Change (2024)
Abstract: As the impacts of climate change become increasingly clear, we study if extreme weather events increase political parties’ discussion of environmental issues. Combining supervised learning algorithms on over 260,000 press releases by European parties with a difference-in-differences design, we find that, apart from Green parties, extreme weather events do not increase attention towards environmental issues. This suggests the consequences of climate change might not directly increase political attention.

2. The Electoral Consequences of New Political Actors: Evidence from the German Greens with Tom Arend and Fabio Ellger.
British Journal of Political Science (Conditionally Accepted)
Abstract: How do voters react to new political actors? Recent research suggests that radical right party success can provoke electoral backlash. We argue that such backlash is not exclusive to the radical right but can emerge whenever new political actors disrupt the status quo. With very distinct policy positions and behaviour, Green parties were early disruptors of post-war party systems in Europe. Using first-difference and difference-in-differences designs with voting records from Germany, we show that Green party success provoked a conservative backlash. After the Greens entered state parliaments, the Christian Democrats gained support. Using additional evidence from early election surveys, we find that Green party success reinforces feelings of animosity among conservatives, mainly driven by disapproval of the Greens' behaviour. These results highlight a broader pattern of backlash against new disruptive political actors. Our findings are especially relevant as polarization and party system fragmentation intensify across many established democracies.

Working Papers


1.Repeated Exposure and Protest Outcomes: How Fridays for Future Protests Influenced Voters
Job Market Paper. R&R
Abstract: Do climate protests have electoral consequences? How does repeated exposure influence protest outcomes? In this paper, I build on social-psychological work to argue that a key characteristic of effective protests is their ability to repeatedly expose voters to their message. I test this argument by studying the effect of Fridays for Future (FFF) protests on voting for Green Parties. Using a novel dataset of FFF protests and a difference-in-differences design, I find that exposure to climate protests increases the vote share of the German Greens, and that repeated exposure to protests increases this effect. Additional analyses suggest these effects are driven by both increases in turnout and changes in climate opinion, but not changes in the importance of climate change. These patterns are replicated in six other European democracies. These findings are important to understand when protests influence behaviour, and the political consequences of climate protests.

2. How nuclear power hurts the Greens: Evidence from German nuclear power plants with Heike Klüver and Cornelius Erfort.
R&R

Abstract: What are the electoral consequences of nuclear energy for Green parties? Despite the centrality of nuclear opposition to Green party platforms, and the social movements that helped them emerge, little research has examined the electoral impact of this stance. Building on theories of energy transitions and local political economy, we propose that the economic benefits of nuclear power can mitigate local public opposition to such otherwise unpopular energy policies. We test this by analyzing the effect of nuclear power plants on electoral support for the German Greens, one of the most vocal opponents of nuclear energy. Using a novel dataset that combines the geolocation of nuclear plants with voting records since the 1980s, and employing difference-in-differences and instrumental variable designs, we find that the opening of nuclear plants correlates with a decrease in Green party vote share. These findings are relevant for understanding Green parties, energy transitions, and unpopular policies.


3. The Paradox of Progressive Politics: Immigrant Support for Green Parties with Korinna Lindemann.
R&R

Abstract: Progressive parties often advocate pro-immigration policies but do not attract equal support from all immigrant groups. Why is this the case? This study examines immigrant behavior and their support for Green parties, a key progressive party family in Western Europe. Our findings reveal that immigrants from established democracies are more likely to support Green parties compared to those from (post-)authoritarian regimes. We attribute this disparity to socialization: Individuals from established democracies, where post-materialist values and environmental politics are more prominent, are more attuned to green issues. This heightened salience influences their political preferences after migration. Using entropy balancing on cross-national European surveys, we identify such a Green support gap and provide evidence for our proposed mechanism. These results inform debates on how cultural norms travel across political contexts and the socialization effects of political institutions.


4. Imperfect Information and Party Responsiveness: Evidence from Extreme Weather Events and the Green Party in England.

Abstract: Do parties respond to voters' preferences? Scholars of party politics often argue that parties respond to voters’ preferences to maximise their likelihood of being elected. I test this assumption by studying how changes in voters' preferences impact parties' strategies. Specifically, I study the effect of floods on the English Greens’ candidate allocation. I argue that floods provide an electoral opportunity for Green parties: they put the environment on the agenda and create an incentive for protest vote. Matching geospatial data with voting records, I use a difference-in-differences design to show that floods influence voters' preferences, but have no effect on the Greens' candidate allocation. Using surveys, campaign expenditure data and interviews, I find support for the idea that the party does not have the resources for or does not prioritise information on voters' preferences. These results are important to understand when elites respond to voters and react on the environment.


5. The political effects of female representation: Evidence from close races in the UK.

Abstract: Does the election of female politicians foster political participation among women? While it is often argued that representation can promote the participation of minorities and of women in particular, research on this has provided mixed results. In this paper, I contribute to this puzzle by using a regression-discontinuity design with close elections to test whether electing a female MP increases women’s participation in local politics in the UK. I collect a novel dataset of over 300,000 local candidates and use panel surveys to test this relationship. I find that the election of a female MP has no effect on the number of female local candidates, but has an effect on women's political attitudes. These results are important for a better understanding of female and minority participation, and can inform policy on diminishing gender inequalities in politics.


6. Minority policies and outgroup hostility: Evidence from face veil bans with Korinna Lindemann.
Draft available upon request
Abstract: Do voters react to policies targeting ethnic minorities? Governments in Western democracies have recently taken restrictive stances on migration and the integration of ethnic minorities. While most recent research on integration is focused on the consequences of intergroup contact, less is known about how voters react to these policies. In this study, we address this gap by studying the effect of policies targeting ethnic minorities on outgroup hostility. We argue these policies are means by which political actors define who is entitled to be a member of a polity. We test this argument by studying the effect of face veil ban in the Swiss canton of Ticino on anti-migration voting and hate crimes and find the policy increased outgroup hostility. Using panel data at the individual level, we find some support for our argument. This study has implications for how policies impact the attitudes and behaviours of voters towards minorities as well as for the cohesiveness of multicultural societies.

Work in Progress

1. Are All Cyclists Green? The Link between Political and Non-Political Environmental Behaviour with Jae-Jae Spoon.

2. Political incentives and climate adaptation policy with Hanno Hilbig and Christian Baehr.

3. Climate Change and Political Entry: Evidence from Brazilian Municipal Elections with Guilherme Fasolin