Research
Publications
1. Extreme Weather Events Do Not Increase Political Parties’ Environmental Attention with Tim Wappenhans, Lukas Stoetzer and Heike Klüver.
Nature Climate Change (2024)
Abstract: As the impacts of climate change become increasingly clear, we study if extreme weather events increase political parties’ discussion of environmental issues. Combining supervised learning algorithms on over 260,000 press releases by European parties with a difference-in-differences design, we find that, apart from Green parties, extreme weather events do not increase attention towards environmental issues. This suggests the consequences of climate change might not directly increase political attention.
2. The Electoral Consequences of New Political Actors: Evidence from the German Greens with Tom Arend and Fabio Ellger.
British Journal of Political Science (Conditionally Accepted)
*Draft available upon request.*
Abstract: What are the consequences of new political actors? Recent research suggests that the emergence of radical right parties (RRPs) can defy long established structures of democratic competition, with consequences for the behavior of voters and political elites. We study whether that is part of a broader pattern by which new actors challenge the political establishment and provoke electoral backlash. With radical policy positions and new forms of organizing, Green parties were one of the first successful disruptors of post-war European party systems. We argue that Green party success threatens established norms of politics, leading to a backlash from conservative voters. We identify this effect with a difference-in-differences design in Germany, and find that Greens success lead to a conservative backlash. We also find evidence of similar patterns in multiple other countries and of individual-level dynamics that suppport our argument. While much research emphasizes the disruptive role of RRPs, our results point towards a more general pattern when new political actors emerge.
Working Papers
1.Repeated Exposure and Protest Outcomes: How Fridays for Future Protests Influenced Voters
Job Market Paper. R&R
Abstract: When do political protests influence citizens’ behaviour? Political protests are a key mean by which citizens try to influence political outcomes. Protests often aim at raising voters’ awareness on specific issues, but when is this successful? In this paper, I build on social-psychological work to argue that a key characteristic of effective protests is their capability to repeatedly expose voters to their message. This paper tests this argument by studying the effect of Fridays for Future (FFF) protests on voting for Green Parties. Using a novel dataset on FFF protests in Germany, and a difference-in-differences design, I find that exposure to environmental protests increases the vote share of the Greens and that repeated exposure to protests increases this effect. Additional analyses using panel survey data explore the individual-level mechanisms at play, and their generalizability beyond Germany and voting behaviour. Overall, these results are important to understand when and how protests are influential, as well as to understand the effects of environmental protests specifically.
3. The political effects of female representation: Evidence from close races in the UK.
Abstract: Does the election of female politicians foster political participation among women? While it is often argued that representation can promote the participation of minorities and of women in particular, research on this has provided mixed results. In this paper, I contribute to this puzzle by using a regression-discontinuity design with close elections to test whether electing a female MP increases women’s participation in local politics in the UK. I collect a novel dataset of over 300,000 local candidates and use panel surveys to test this relationship. I find that the election of a female MP has no effect on the number of female local candidates, but has an effect on women's political attitudes. These results are important for a better understanding of female and minority participation, and can inform policy on diminishing gender inequalities in politics.4. Buying voter support for unpopular policies: Evidence from German nuclear power plants with Heike Klüver and Cornelius Erfort.
Abstract: How can governments ensure voters' support for unpopular policies? Policymakers often have to implement policies that are unpopular in local communities, such as the construction of windmills or nuclear power plants. However, little is known about how policymakers can increase local support. We argue that perceived economic benefits increase support for otherwise unpopular policies. We test our argument by studying the consequences of nuclear power plants on support for the Green Party in Germany, a strong opponent of nuclear energy. We collected a novel dataset on the geographic location of nuclear plants and voting records since the 1980s. Using difference-in-differences and instrumental variable designs, we find that the opening of nuclear power plants has a negative effect on the vote share of the Greens. Additional individual-level panel analyses suggest that this effect is driven by economic considerations. Overall, these results are relevant for the study of energy transitions and the implementation of unpopular policies more generally.5. Minority policies and outgroup hostility: Evidence from face veil bans with Korinna Lindemann.
Draft available upon request
Abstract: Do voters react to policies targeting ethnic minorities? Governments in Western democracies have recently taken restrictive stances on migration and the integration of ethnic minorities. While most recent research on integration is focused on the consequences of intergroup contact, less is known about how voters react to these policies. In this study, we address this gap by studying the effect of policies targeting ethnic minorities on outgroup hostility. We argue these policies are means by which political actors define who is entitled to be a member of a polity. We test this argument by studying the effect of face veil ban in the Swiss canton of Ticino on anti-migration voting and hate crimes and find the policy increased outgroup hostility. Using panel data at the individual level, we find some support for our argument. This study has implications for how policies impact the attitudes and behaviours of voters towards minorities as well as for the cohesiveness of multicultural societies.
Work in Progress
1. Are All Cyclists Green? The Link between Political and Non-Political Environmental Behaviour with Jae-Jae Spoon.
2. Political incentives and climate adaptation policy with Hanno Hilbig and Christian Baehr.
3. Climate Change and political selection with Guilherme Fasolin